## NFL Playoff Picture: Postseason Probabilities Entering Week 14 of 2024 Season
With Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season rapidly approaching, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. Several teams have already punched their tickets to the postseason, while others are still fighting for a spot in the expanded 16-team bracket.
### Conference Standings
**AFC**
| Team | Record | Pct. | GB |
|—|—|—|—|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11-2 | .846 | – |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10-3 | .769 | 1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 9-4 | .692 | 2.5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8-5 | .615 | 3.5 |
| New York Jets | 8-5 | .615 | 3.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7-6 | .538 | 4.5 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7-6 | .538 | 4.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-7 | .462 | 5.5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-8 | .385 | 6.5 |
| Houston Texans | 1-12 | .077 | 10.5 |
**NFC**
| Team | Record | Pct. | GB |
|—|—|—|—|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 12-1 | .923 | – |
| San Francisco 49ers | 9-4 | .692 | 3 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9-4 | .692 | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-5 | .615 | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8-5 | .615 | 4 |
| New York Giants | 7-6 | .538 | 5 |
| Washington Commanders | 7-6 | .538 | 5 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 6-7 | .462 | 6 |
| Green Bay Packers | 5-8 | .385 | 7 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4-9 | .308 | 8 |
### Postseason Probabilities
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Kansas City Chiefs have the highest probability of winning the Super Bowl at 28%. They are followed by the Philadelphia Eagles (22%), Cincinnati Bengals (15%), and San Francisco 49ers (12%).
In the AFC, the Bills, Jaguars, Jets, Ravens, Dolphins, Steelers, and Browns are all within striking distance of a playoff berth. However, the Jags, Jets, and Ravens have the most favorable remaining schedules.
In the NFC, the Buccaneers, Cowboys, Giants, Commanders, and Seahawks are all vying for the three remaining wild-card spots. The Bucs and Cowboys have the toughest remaining schedules, while the Giants and Commanders have the easiest.
### Key Matchups in Week 14
Several key matchups in Week 14 could have a significant impact on the playoff picture.
* **Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals:** This AFC Championship Game rematch could determine the No. 1 seed in the conference.
* **Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans:** The Jags need a win to stay in contention for the AFC South title.
* **New York Jets at Buffalo Bills:** The Jets can take a big step towards a playoff berth with a win over their division rivals.
* **Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants:** The Eagles can clinch the NFC East title with a victory on the road.
* **Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers:** The Bucs need a win to keep pace in the NFC South race.
### Players to Watch
Several players could have a major impact on their teams’ playoff hopes in Week 14.
* **Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs:** Mahomes is the reigning MVP and is playing at an elite level once again this season.
* **Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals:** Burrow is one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the NFL and is looking to lead the Bengals back to the Super Bowl.
* **Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars:** Lawrence has shown significant improvement in his second season and is leading the Jags to a surprising playoff run.
* **Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles:** Hurts is having a breakout season and is a major reason why the Eagles are the NFC’s top team.
* **Nick Bosa, DE, San Francisco 49ers:** Bosa is one of the most dominant pass rushers in the NFL and is a key part of the 49ers’ defense.
### Conclusion
The NFL playoff picture is starting to take shape, but there are still several teams fighting for a spot in the postseason. Week 14 features several key matchups that could have a significant impact on the playoff race. Keep an eye on the players listed above as they could have a major impact on their teams’ fortunes.