NFL Playoff Picture: Postseason Probabilities Entering Week 15 of 2024 Season
As the 2024 NFL regular season nears its conclusion, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. Several teams have already clinched their postseason berths, while others are fighting for their playoff lives. Here’s a look at the current playoff probabilities entering Week 15:
AFC
Clinched Playoff Berths:
- Kansas City Chiefs (12-2): 99.9% chance to make the playoffs
- Cincinnati Bengals (11-3): 97.6% chance to make the playoffs
In Contention:
- Buffalo Bills (9-5): 84.3% chance to make the playoffs
- Baltimore Ravens (8-6): 58.7% chance to make the playoffs
- Tennessee Titans (7-7): 27.4% chance to make the playoffs
- New York Jets (7-7): 20.6% chance to make the playoffs
- Miami Dolphins (8-6): 16.9% chance to make the playoffs
- New England Patriots (6-8): 5.2% chance to make the playoffs
- Cleveland Browns (6-8): 3.4% chance to make the playoffs
- Pittsburgh Steelers (5-9): 1.8% chance to make the playoffs
The Bills are the only team in the AFC East that still has a chance to catch the Chiefs for the division title. However, they will need to win out and hope that the Chiefs lose their remaining games.
The Ravens and Titans are battling for the AFC South title. The Ravens currently hold a one-game lead over the Titans, but both teams have tough schedules remaining.
The Jets, Dolphins, and Patriots are all in the running for the AFC’s final Wild Card berth. The Jets currently have the inside track, but the Dolphins and Patriots are both within striking distance.
NFC
Clinched Playoff Berths:
- Philadelphia Eagles (13-1): 99.9% chance to make the playoffs
- San Francisco 49ers (10-4): 97.6% chance to make the playoffs
- Minnesota Vikings (10-4): 84.3% chance to make the playoffs
In Contention:
- Dallas Cowboys (10-4): 77.9% chance to make the playoffs
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6): 58.7% chance to make the playoffs
- Seattle Seahawks (8-6): 37.1% chance to make the playoffs
- Washington Commanders (7-7): 27.4% chance to make the playoffs
- New York Giants (7-7): 20.6% chance to make the playoffs
- Carolina Panthers (6-8): 16.9% chance to make the playoffs
- Atlanta Falcons (5-9): 5.2% chance to make the playoffs
- New Orleans Saints (5-9): 3.4% chance to make the playoffs
The Cowboys are currently the favorite to win the NFC East, but the Giants are still in the race. The Buccaneers are also in the mix for the division title, but they will need to win out and hope that the Cowboys and Giants lose their remaining games.
The Seahawks, Commanders, and Giants are all in contention for the NFC’s final Wild Card berth. The Seahawks currently have the inside track, but the Commanders and Giants are both within striking distance.
Key Matchups in Week 15
Several key matchups in Week 15 will have a major impact on the playoff picture. Here are a few to watch:
- Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals: This is a battle between two of the top teams in the AFC. The Bengals currently hold a one-game lead over the Bills in the AFC North, so a win would give them a huge advantage in the division race.
- Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: This is a key game in the AFC North race. The Ravens currently hold a one-game lead over the Browns, so a win would give them a major boost in their quest for a playoff berth.
- Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This is a huge game in the NFC South race. The Cowboys currently hold a one-game lead over the Buccaneers, so a win would give them a major advantage in the division race.
- Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: This is a battle between two of the top teams in the NFC West. The Seahawks currently hold a one-game lead over the 49ers, so a win would give them a major boost in their quest for a playoff berth.
The playoffs are just around the corner, and the action is sure to be intense. Stay tuned to see how the playoff picture unfolds in the final weeks of the regular season.